Saturday, 17 March 2012

Dynamic disequilibria and the creation of criminal opportunity

The security industry and criminal activity feeds upon itself. Crime and entrepreneurship each create opportunities for the other. In this, new innovations are created allowing both the growth of new forms of criminal activity as well as the ensuing opportunities for alert security professionals.

Markets spawn their counter. That is, criminal markets spawn new forms of counter and in turn, each of these  reactively as well as proactively introduce new opportunities. So, each security improvement creates a new form of criminal activity and the growth of new criminal groups leads to a fresh set of entrepreneurial risk and security firms that are better aligned to meet the changing challenges and problems posed by a new form for criminal action arise to fill this newly created dislocation.

Where criminal “innovation” is lax, generally due to the failure of the criminal organization to extract sufficient profit for the level of risk they are exposed to, innovation may be driven down.

Hence, increases in the risk associated with crime or the generally deficient conditions in a black market and the associated reduction in profitability lead to reduced incentives to create new forms of crime and the incumbent players (criminal groups) will entrench and act to protect their existing market share.

Any time where a set of concurrent disequilibria has come from the result of innovation, opportunities inevitably result. This is true for both the legitimate market as well as that of a black or criminal market.

In long term states of relatively low disequilibria, all societies stagnate. This is equally true of crime and in these events the condition leads to a fo9rm of entrenchment and lethargy.

However, the introduction of disequilibria comes from many sources and the introduction of innovation into markets creates a corresponding round of opportunities in associated markets including those we seek to minimize such as criminal ones.

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